Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Amon-Ra St. Brown
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Amon-Ra St. Brown by 0.8 projected points (18.6 vs 17.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Amon-Ra St. Brown faces ARI, the 1st-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces SF, the 17th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jaxon Smith-Njigba ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and it isn't close: 23.8 points of value over replacement separate them (121.0 vs 97.2).
The draft market agrees: Jaxon Smith-Njigba goes first at ADP 5.9 vs 7.0 for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | SF | ARI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 17.9 | 18.6 | Brown +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #17 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 299.0 | 275.2 | Smith-Njigba +23.8 pts |
| Points per game | 17.6 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 121.0 | 97.2 | Smith-Njigba +23.8 |
| Overall rank | #9 | #15 | Smith-Njigba by 6 |
| Position rank | WR3 | WR4 | |
| Market ADP | 5.9 | 7.0 | Brown +1.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Amon-Ra St. Brown by 0.8 projected points (18.6 vs 17.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2026 fantasy football?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He projects 299.0 fantasy points with 121.0 value over replacement, vs 275.2 points and 97.2 for Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, PPR).