Puka Nacua vs Amon-Ra St. Brown
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Amon-Ra St. Brown by 0.0 projected points (18.6 vs 18.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Amon-Ra St. Brown faces ARI, the 1st-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Puka Nacua faces BUF, the 12th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Puka Nacua ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Puka Nacua, and it isn't close: 31.7 points of value over replacement separate them (129.0 vs 97.2).
The draft market agrees: Puka Nacua goes first at ADP 3.3 vs 7.0 for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
| Puka NacuaLAR | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | BUF | ARI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 18.6 | 18.6 | Even |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #12 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 307.0 | 275.2 | Nacua +31.7 pts |
| Points per game | 18.1 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 129.0 | 97.2 | Nacua +31.7 |
| Overall rank | #7 | #15 | Nacua by 8 |
| Position rank | WR2 | WR4 | |
| Market ADP | 3.3 | 7.0 | Brown +3.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Puka Nacua or Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Amon-Ra St. Brown by 0.0 projected points (18.6 vs 18.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Puka Nacua or Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2026 fantasy football?
Puka Nacua. He projects 307.0 fantasy points with 129.0 value over replacement, vs 275.2 points and 97.2 for Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, PPR).