Ja'Marr Chase vs Puka Nacua
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Ja'Marr Chase this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (19.6 vs 18.6).
Ja'Marr Chase faces MIA, the 14th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Puka Nacua faces BUF, the 12th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Ja'Marr Chase, and it isn't close: 18.5 points of value over replacement separate them (147.5 vs 129.0).
The draft market has them practically even (ADP 3.7 vs 3.3), so whichever falls to you is the pick.
Health note: Ja'Marr Chase carries an injury flag of Questionable (Concussion), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | Puka NacuaLAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | MIA | BUF | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 19.6 | 18.6 | Chase +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #14 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 325.5 | 307.0 | Chase +18.5 pts |
| Points per game | 19.1 | 18.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 147.5 | 129.0 | Chase +18.5 |
| Overall rank | #5 | #7 | Chase by 2 |
| Position rank | WR1 | WR2 | |
| Market ADP | 3.7 | 3.3 | Even |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua in Week 5?
Start Ja'Marr Chase this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.0 projected points (19.6 vs 18.6).
Should I draft Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua in 2026 fantasy football?
Ja'Marr Chase. He projects 325.5 fantasy points with 147.5 value over replacement, vs 307.0 points and 129.0 for Puka Nacua (WR, PPR).