Puka Nacua vs Justin Jefferson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Puka Nacua by 0.9 projected points (19.2 vs 18.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Puka Nacua faces PHI, the 19th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Justin Jefferson faces MIA, the 9th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Puka Nacua, and it isn't close: 36.4 points of value over replacement separate them (150.6 vs 114.2).
The draft market agrees: Puka Nacua goes first at ADP 3.3 vs 11.8 for Justin Jefferson.
Health note: Puka Nacua carries an injury flag of Out (Hip), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Justin Jefferson carries an injury flag of Out (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Puka NacuaLAR | Justin JeffersonMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | PHI | MIA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 19.2 | 18.3 | Nacua +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #19 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 330.9 | 294.5 | Nacua +36.4 pts |
| Points per game | 19.5 | 17.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 150.6 | 114.2 | Nacua +36.4 |
| Overall rank | #5 | #11 | Nacua by 6 |
| Position rank | WR1 | WR4 | |
| Market ADP | 3.3 | 11.8 | Jefferson +8.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Out | Out |
Should I start Puka Nacua or Justin Jefferson in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Puka Nacua by 0.9 projected points (19.2 vs 18.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Puka Nacua or Justin Jefferson in 2026 fantasy football?
Puka Nacua. He projects 330.9 fantasy points with 150.6 value over replacement, vs 294.5 points and 114.2 for Justin Jefferson (WR, PPR).