Justin Jefferson vs Amon-Ra St. Brown
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Jefferson by 0.5 projected points (18.3 vs 17.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Justin Jefferson faces MIA, the 9th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown faces CAR, the 5th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Jefferson, and it isn't close: 19.3 points of value over replacement separate them (114.2 vs 94.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Amon-Ra St. Brown first (ADP 7.0 vs 11.8). If the model is right, Justin Jefferson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Justin Jefferson carries an injury flag of Out (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Justin JeffersonMIN | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | MIA | CAR | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 18.3 | 17.8 | Jefferson +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #9 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 294.5 | 275.2 | Jefferson +19.3 pts |
| Points per game | 17.3 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 114.2 | 94.9 | Jefferson +19.3 |
| Overall rank | #11 | #15 | Jefferson by 4 |
| Position rank | WR4 | WR5 | |
| Market ADP | 11.8 | 7.0 | Jefferson +4.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 1 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Jefferson by 0.5 projected points (18.3 vs 17.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Jefferson or Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Jefferson. He projects 294.5 fantasy points with 114.2 value over replacement, vs 275.2 points and 94.9 for Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, PPR).