Geno Smith vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
Start Geno Smith this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (13.9 vs 12.5).
Geno Smith faces BUF, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Michael Penix faces KC, the 17th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Geno Smith, and it isn't close: 28.4 points of value over replacement separate them (-44.0 vs -72.4).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Geno SmithNYJ | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | BUF | KC | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 13.9 | 12.5 | Smith +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #21 | #17 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 243.5 | 215.0 | Smith +28.4 pts |
| Points per game | 14.3 | 12.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -44.0 | -72.4 | Smith +28.4 |
| Overall rank | #127 | #158 | Smith by 31 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 13 | 11 |
Should I start Geno Smith or Michael Penix in Week 10?
Start Geno Smith this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (13.9 vs 12.5).
Should I draft Geno Smith or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Geno Smith. He projects 243.5 fantasy points with -44.0 value over replacement, vs 215.0 points and -72.4 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR).