Bo Nix vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 7? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 7
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Penix by 0.1 projected points (13.0 vs 12.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Michael Penix faces SF, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Bo Nix faces ARI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Bo Nix ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 7, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.4 points of value over replacement (-72.9 vs -73.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Bo NixDEN | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 opponent | ARI | SF | |
| Projected Week 7 points | 12.9 | 13.0 | Penix +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #18 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 220.0 | 219.6 | Nix +0.4 pts |
| Points per game | 12.9 | 12.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -72.9 | -73.3 | Nix +0.4 |
| Overall rank | #161 | #163 | Nix by 2 |
| Position rank | QB25 | QB26 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Michael Penix in Week 7?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Penix by 0.1 projected points (13.0 vs 12.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Bo Nix or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 220.0 fantasy points with -72.9 value over replacement, vs 219.6 points and -73.3 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.