Caleb Williams vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
Start Caleb Williams this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.5 projected points (13.8 vs 12.3).
Caleb Williams faces ATL, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Michael Penix faces CHI, the 13th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams: a clear but modest edge of 14.3 points of value over replacement (-69.6 vs -83.8).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Questionable (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | ATL | CHI | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 13.8 | 12.3 | Williams +1.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #5 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 219.0 | 204.7 | Williams +14.3 pts |
| Points per game | 12.9 | 12.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -69.6 | -83.8 | Williams +14.3 |
| Overall rank | #158 | #174 | Williams by 16 |
| Position rank | QB24 | QB27 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Michael Penix in Week 6?
Start Caleb Williams this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.5 projected points (13.8 vs 12.3).
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 219.0 fantasy points with -69.6 value over replacement, vs 204.7 points and -83.8 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR).