Bo Nix vs Geno Smith
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
Start Geno Smith this week: Bo Nix is on bye in Week 10.
Geno Smith gets BUF, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week, projecting 13.9 points.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Bo Nix by 0.7 points of value over replacement (-43.3 vs -44.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Bo NixDEN | Geno SmithNYJ | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | Bye | BUF | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 0.0 | 13.9 | Smith +13.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | - | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 244.2 | 243.5 | Nix +0.7 pts |
| Points per game | 14.4 | 14.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -43.3 | -44.0 | Nix +0.7 |
| Overall rank | #126 | #127 | Nix by 1 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 109.6 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 13 |
Should I start Bo Nix or Geno Smith in Week 10?
Start Geno Smith this week: Bo Nix is on bye in Week 10.
Should I draft Bo Nix or Geno Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
Bo Nix. He projects 244.2 fantasy points with -43.3 value over replacement, vs 243.5 points and -44.0 for Geno Smith (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.