Justin Herbert vs Geno Smith
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 0.4 projected points (12.8 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Justin Herbert faces DEN, the 29th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CLE, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 3.4 points of value over replacement (-49.5 vs -52.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Geno SmithNYJ | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | DEN | CLE | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 12.8 | 12.5 | Herbert +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #29 | #30 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.8 | 232.4 | Herbert +3.4 pts |
| Points per game | 13.9 | 13.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -49.5 | -52.8 | Herbert +3.4 |
| Overall rank | #128 | #133 | Herbert by 5 |
| Position rank | QB23 | QB24 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 13 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Geno Smith in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 0.4 projected points (12.8 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Geno Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 235.8 fantasy points with -49.5 value over replacement, vs 232.4 points and -52.8 for Geno Smith (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.