Rico Dowdle vs Emmett Johnson
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.1 projected points (8.1 vs 8.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Rico Dowdle faces CIN, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Emmett Johnson faces ATL, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Rico Dowdle: a clear but modest edge of 14.7 points of value over replacement (-9.0 vs -23.7).
The draft market agrees: Rico Dowdle goes first at ADP 76.6 vs 142.3 for Emmett Johnson.
| Rico DowdlePIT | Emmett JohnsonKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | CIN | ATL | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 8.1 | 8.1 | Dowdle +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #14 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.7 | 123.0 | Dowdle +14.7 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -9.0 | -23.7 | Dowdle +14.7 |
| Overall rank | #85 | #98 | Dowdle by 13 |
| Position rank | RB33 | RB35 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | 142.3 | Johnson +65.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 5 |
Should I start Rico Dowdle or Emmett Johnson in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.1 projected points (8.1 vs 8.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Rico Dowdle or Emmett Johnson in 2026 fantasy football?
Rico Dowdle. He projects 137.7 fantasy points with -9.0 value over replacement, vs 123.0 points and -23.7 for Emmett Johnson (RB, PPR).