Rico Dowdle vs Eli Heidenreich
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.9 projected points (8.1 vs 7.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Both face CIN, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Rico Dowdle: a clear but modest edge of 14.8 points of value over replacement (-9.0 vs -23.8).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Rico DowdlePIT | Eli HeidenreichPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | CIN | CIN | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 8.1 | 7.3 | Dowdle +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #14 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.7 | 122.9 | Dowdle +14.8 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -9.0 | -23.8 | Dowdle +14.8 |
| Overall rank | #85 | #99 | Dowdle by 14 |
| Position rank | RB33 | RB36 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | - | |
| Bye week | 9 | 9 |
Should I start Rico Dowdle or Eli Heidenreich in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.9 projected points (8.1 vs 7.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Rico Dowdle or Eli Heidenreich in 2026 fantasy football?
Rico Dowdle. He projects 137.7 fantasy points with -9.0 value over replacement, vs 122.9 points and -23.8 for Eli Heidenreich (RB, PPR).