J.K. Dobbins vs Rico Dowdle
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
Start Rico Dowdle this week: J.K. Dobbins is on bye in Week 10.
Rico Dowdle gets CIN, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week, projecting 8.1 points.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans J.K. Dobbins by 0.3 points of value over replacement (-8.7 vs -9.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Rico Dowdle first (ADP 76.6 vs 85.5). If the model is right, J.K. Dobbins is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | Rico DowdlePIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | Bye | CIN | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 0.0 | 8.1 | Dowdle +8.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | - | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 138.0 | 137.7 | Dobbins +0.3 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 8.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -8.7 | -9.0 | Dobbins +0.3 |
| Overall rank | #83 | #85 | Dobbins by 2 |
| Position rank | RB32 | RB33 | |
| Market ADP | 85.5 | 76.6 | Dobbins +8.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 9 |
Should I start J.K. Dobbins or Rico Dowdle in Week 10?
Start Rico Dowdle this week: J.K. Dobbins is on bye in Week 10.
Should I draft J.K. Dobbins or Rico Dowdle in 2026 fantasy football?
J.K. Dobbins. He projects 138.0 fantasy points with -8.7 value over replacement, vs 137.7 points and -9.0 for Rico Dowdle (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.