DeVonta Smith vs Justin Jefferson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans DeVonta Smith by 0.6 projected points (14.6 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
DeVonta Smith faces JAX, the 13th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Justin Jefferson faces NO, the 18th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes DeVonta Smith: a clear but modest edge of 5.8 points of value over replacement (63.7 vs 57.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Justin Jefferson first (ADP 11.8 vs 29.1). If the model is right, DeVonta Smith is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: DeVonta Smith carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Justin Jefferson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| DeVonta SmithPHI | Justin JeffersonMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | JAX | NO | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 14.6 | 14.1 | Smith +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #13 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 241.7 | 235.9 | Smith +5.8 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 13.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 63.7 | 57.9 | Smith +5.8 |
| Overall rank | #27 | #29 | Smith by 2 |
| Position rank | WR9 | WR10 | |
| Market ADP | 29.1 | 11.8 | Smith +17.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 1 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Out | Questionable |
Should I start DeVonta Smith or Justin Jefferson in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans DeVonta Smith by 0.6 projected points (14.6 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft DeVonta Smith or Justin Jefferson in 2026 fantasy football?
DeVonta Smith. He projects 241.7 fantasy points with 63.7 value over replacement, vs 235.9 points and 57.9 for Justin Jefferson (WR, PPR).