DeVonta Smith vs Nico Collins
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Nico Collins by 0.2 projected points (13.9 vs 13.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Nico Collins faces DAL, the 11th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. DeVonta Smith faces LA, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks DeVonta Smith ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes DeVonta Smith, and it isn't close: 15.7 points of value over replacement separate them (68.1 vs 52.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Nico Collins first (ADP 19.6 vs 29.1). If the model is right, DeVonta Smith is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: DeVonta Smith carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| DeVonta SmithPHI | Nico CollinsHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LA | DAL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.7 | 13.9 | Collins +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #23 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 246.5 | 230.8 | Smith +15.7 pts |
| Points per game | 14.5 | 13.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 68.1 | 52.3 | Smith +15.7 |
| Overall rank | #25 | #34 | Smith by 9 |
| Position rank | WR8 | WR11 | |
| Market ADP | 29.1 | 19.6 | Smith +9.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start DeVonta Smith or Nico Collins in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Nico Collins by 0.2 projected points (13.9 vs 13.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft DeVonta Smith or Nico Collins in 2026 fantasy football?
DeVonta Smith. He projects 246.5 fantasy points with 68.1 value over replacement, vs 230.8 points and 52.3 for Nico Collins (WR, PPR).