Josh Downs vs Deebo Samuel
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.2 projected points (8.5 vs 8.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Josh Downs faces TEN, the 25th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Deebo Samuel faces SF, the 19th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Downs: a clear but modest edge of 9.1 points of value over replacement (-28.3 vs -37.3).
The draft market agrees: Josh Downs goes first at ADP 94.8 vs 115.4 for Deebo Samuel.
Health note: Deebo Samuel carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Josh DownsIND | Deebo SamuelWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | TEN | SF | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 8.5 | 8.3 | Downs +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 28) | #25 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 150.2 | 141.1 | Downs +9.1 pts |
| Points per game | 8.8 | 8.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.3 | -37.3 | Downs +9.1 |
| Overall rank | #103 | #109 | Downs by 6 |
| Position rank | WR43 | WR45 | |
| Market ADP | 94.8 | 115.4 | Samuel +20.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Josh Downs or Deebo Samuel in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Josh Downs by 0.2 projected points (8.5 vs 8.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Josh Downs or Deebo Samuel in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Downs. He projects 150.2 fantasy points with -28.3 value over replacement, vs 141.1 points and -37.3 for Deebo Samuel (WR, PPR).