Geno Smith vs Daniel Jones
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Daniel Jones this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.8 projected points (14.2 vs 12.5).
Daniel Jones faces PIT, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CLE, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Geno Smith ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Geno Smith: a clear but modest edge of 9.8 points of value over replacement (-52.8 vs -62.6).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Geno SmithNYJ | Daniel JonesIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | CLE | PIT | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 12.5 | 14.2 | Jones +1.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #30 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 232.4 | 222.6 | Smith +9.8 pts |
| Points per game | 13.7 | 13.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -52.8 | -62.6 | Smith +9.8 |
| Overall rank | #133 | #150 | Smith by 17 |
| Position rank | QB24 | QB25 | |
| Market ADP | - | 160.6 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 13 |
Should I start Geno Smith or Daniel Jones in Week 5?
Start Daniel Jones this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.8 projected points (14.2 vs 12.5).
Should I draft Geno Smith or Daniel Jones in 2026 fantasy football?
Geno Smith. He projects 232.4 fantasy points with -52.8 value over replacement, vs 222.6 points and -62.6 for Daniel Jones (QB, PPR).