Carson Wentz vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.3 projected points (12.5 vs 12.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Carson Wentz faces NO, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Michael Penix faces BAL, the 13th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Carson Wentz: a clear but modest edge of 9.5 points of value over replacement (-71.0 vs -80.6).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Carson WentzMIN | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | NO | BAL | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 12.5 | 12.2 | Wentz +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 214.2 | 204.7 | Wentz +9.5 pts |
| Points per game | 12.6 | 12.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -71.0 | -80.6 | Wentz +9.5 |
| Overall rank | #158 | #170 | Wentz by 12 |
| Position rank | QB27 | QB29 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 11 |
Should I start Carson Wentz or Michael Penix in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.3 projected points (12.5 vs 12.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Carson Wentz or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Carson Wentz. He projects 214.2 fantasy points with -71.0 value over replacement, vs 204.7 points and -80.6 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR).