Geno Smith vs Carson Wentz
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.0 projected points (12.5 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Carson Wentz faces NO, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CLE, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Geno Smith ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Geno Smith, and it isn't close: 18.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-52.8 vs -71.0).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Geno SmithNYJ | Carson WentzMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | CLE | NO | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 12.5 | 12.5 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #30 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 232.4 | 214.2 | Smith +18.2 pts |
| Points per game | 13.7 | 12.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -52.8 | -71.0 | Smith +18.2 |
| Overall rank | #133 | #158 | Smith by 25 |
| Position rank | QB24 | QB27 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 13 | 6 |
Should I start Geno Smith or Carson Wentz in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.0 projected points (12.5 vs 12.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Geno Smith or Carson Wentz in 2026 fantasy football?
Geno Smith. He projects 232.4 fantasy points with -52.8 value over replacement, vs 214.2 points and -71.0 for Carson Wentz (QB, PPR).