Josh Allen vs Caleb Williams
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Josh Allen this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (20.3 vs 19.2).
Josh Allen faces LA, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Josh Allen, and it isn't close: 15.3 points of value over replacement separate them (28.7 vs 13.4).
The draft market agrees: Josh Allen goes first at ADP 32.9 vs 86.0 for Caleb Williams.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Josh AllenBUF | Caleb WilliamsCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LA | GB | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 20.3 | 19.2 | Allen +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #4 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 313.9 | 298.6 | Allen +15.3 pts |
| Points per game | 18.5 | 17.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 28.7 | 13.4 | Allen +15.3 |
| Overall rank | #44 | #60 | Allen by 16 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB9 | |
| Market ADP | 32.9 | 86.0 | Williams +53.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 3 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Josh Allen or Caleb Williams in Week 5?
Start Josh Allen this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (20.3 vs 19.2).
Should I draft Josh Allen or Caleb Williams in 2026 fantasy football?
Josh Allen. He projects 313.9 fantasy points with 28.7 value over replacement, vs 298.6 points and 13.4 for Caleb Williams (QB, PPR).