C.J. Stroud vs Lamar Jackson
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.5 projected points (16.5 vs 15.0).
C.J. Stroud faces JAX, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Lamar Jackson faces CLE, the 6th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes C.J. Stroud, and it isn't close: 31.5 points of value over replacement separate them (-19.1 vs -50.6).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Lamar Jackson first (ADP 54.6 vs 155.7). If the model is right, C.J. Stroud is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Lamar JacksonBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | JAX | CLE | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 16.5 | 15.0 | Stroud +1.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #11 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 269.5 | 238.0 | Stroud +31.5 pts |
| Points per game | 15.9 | 14.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -19.1 | -50.6 | Stroud +31.5 |
| Overall rank | #96 | #128 | Stroud by 32 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | 54.6 | Stroud +101.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Lamar Jackson in Week 6?
Start C.J. Stroud this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.5 projected points (16.5 vs 15.0).
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Lamar Jackson in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 269.5 fantasy points with -19.1 value over replacement, vs 238.0 points and -50.6 for Lamar Jackson (QB, PPR).