Head to head · QB · 2026
Kyler Murray vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
Kyler Murray
The model takes Kyler Murray, and it isn't close: 22.6 points of value over replacement separate them (-55.4 vs -78.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take C.J. Stroud first (ADP 147.5 vs 149.6). If the model is right, Kyler Murray is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Kyler Murray | C.J. Stroud | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | MIN | HOU | |
| Overall rank | #145 | #175 | Murray by 30 |
| Position rank | QB20 | QB21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 207.8 | 185.1 | Murray +22.6 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -55.4 | -78.1 | Murray +22.6 |
| Market ADP | 149.6 | 147.5 | Murray +2.1 cheaper |
Should I draft Kyler Murray or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Kyler Murray. He projects 207.8 fantasy points with -55.4 value over replacement, vs 185.1 points and -78.1 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).