C.J. Stroud vs Jared Goff
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 0.6 projected points (18.6 vs 18.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
C.J. Stroud faces CLE, the 10th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jared Goff faces NE, the 9th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes C.J. Stroud: a clear but modest edge of 10.1 points of value over replacement (15.1 vs 5.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jared Goff first (ADP 101.8 vs 155.7). If the model is right, C.J. Stroud is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| C.J. StroudHOU | Jared GoffDET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | CLE | NE | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 18.6 | 18.0 | Stroud +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #10 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 302.6 | 292.4 | Stroud +10.1 pts |
| Points per game | 17.8 | 17.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 15.1 | 5.0 | Stroud +10.1 |
| Overall rank | #59 | #64 | Stroud by 5 |
| Position rank | QB9 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 155.7 | 101.8 | Stroud +53.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 6 |
Should I start C.J. Stroud or Jared Goff in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 0.6 projected points (18.6 vs 18.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Jared Goff in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 302.6 fantasy points with 15.1 value over replacement, vs 292.4 points and 5.0 for Jared Goff (QB, PPR).