Brian Robinson Jr. vs Jonah Coleman
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Robinson Jr. by 0.3 projected points (3.8 vs 3.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Brian Robinson Jr. faces SEA, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Jonah Coleman faces LAC, the 16th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Brian Robinson Jr.: a clear but modest edge of 7.2 points of value over replacement (-70.3 vs -77.5).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jonah Coleman first (ADP 155.6 vs 161.9). If the model is right, Brian Robinson Jr. is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Jonah Coleman carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Brian Robinson Jr.SFO | Jonah ColemanDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | SEA | LAC | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 3.8 | 3.5 | Jr. +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 66.3 | 59.1 | Jr. +7.2 pts |
| Points per game | 3.9 | 3.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -70.3 | -77.5 | Jr. +7.2 |
| Overall rank | #148 | #153 | Jr. by 5 |
| Position rank | RB47 | RB48 | |
| Market ADP | 161.9 | 155.6 | Jr. +6.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start Brian Robinson Jr. or Jonah Coleman in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Brian Robinson Jr. by 0.3 projected points (3.8 vs 3.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Brian Robinson Jr. or Jonah Coleman in 2026 fantasy football?
Brian Robinson Jr.. He projects 66.3 fantasy points with -70.3 value over replacement, vs 59.1 points and -77.5 for Jonah Coleman (RB, PPR).