Alvin Kamara vs Kaelon Black
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 0.4 projected points (4.6 vs 4.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Alvin Kamara faces LV, the 12th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Kaelon Black faces ARI, the 6th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Alvin Kamara: a clear but modest edge of 10.7 points of value over replacement (-59.4 vs -70.1).
The draft market agrees: Alvin Kamara goes first at ADP 148.7 vs 166.2 for Kaelon Black.
| Alvin KamaraNOR | Kaelon BlackSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LV | ARI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 4.6 | 4.2 | Kamara +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #12 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 77.2 | 66.5 | Kamara +10.7 pts |
| Points per game | 4.5 | 3.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -59.4 | -70.1 | Kamara +10.7 |
| Overall rank | #137 | #150 | Kamara by 13 |
| Position rank | RB43 | RB46 | |
| Market ADP | 148.7 | 166.2 | Black +17.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 8 |
Should I start Alvin Kamara or Kaelon Black in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Alvin Kamara by 0.4 projected points (4.6 vs 4.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Alvin Kamara or Kaelon Black in 2026 fantasy football?
Alvin Kamara. He projects 77.2 fantasy points with -59.4 value over replacement, vs 66.5 points and -70.1 for Kaelon Black (RB, PPR).