Aaron Rodgers vs Drake Maye
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.2 projected points (15.6 vs 15.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Drake Maye faces LV, the 9th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces IND, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Aaron Rodgers ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Aaron Rodgers: a clear but modest edge of 11.5 points of value over replacement (-21.6 vs -33.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Drake Maye first (ADP 51.8 vs 183.1). If the model is right, Aaron Rodgers is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Drake MayeNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | LV | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 15.4 | 15.6 | Maye +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #19 | #9 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.7 | 252.2 | Rodgers +11.5 pts |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 14.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.6 | -33.0 | Rodgers +11.5 |
| Overall rank | #93 | #111 | Rodgers by 18 |
| Position rank | QB16 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | 51.8 | Rodgers +131.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 11 |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Drake Maye in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.2 projected points (15.6 vs 15.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Drake Maye in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 263.7 fantasy points with -21.6 value over replacement, vs 252.2 points and -33.0 for Drake Maye (QB, PPR).