Rico Dowdle vs Aaron Jones
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.8 projected points (7.4 vs 6.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Rico Dowdle faces IND, the 16th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Aaron Jones faces NO, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Rico Dowdle: a clear but modest edge of 13.6 points of value over replacement (-13.0 vs -26.6).
The draft market agrees: Rico Dowdle goes first at ADP 76.6 vs 101.6 for Aaron Jones.
Health note: Rico Dowdle carries an injury flag of Out (Toe), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Aaron Jones carries an injury flag of Questionable (Leg), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Rico DowdlePIT | Aaron JonesMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | NO | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 7.4 | 6.6 | Dowdle +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #16 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 123.6 | 110.0 | Dowdle +13.6 pts |
| Points per game | 7.3 | 6.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -13.0 | -26.6 | Dowdle +13.6 |
| Overall rank | #89 | #101 | Dowdle by 12 |
| Position rank | RB32 | RB35 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | 101.6 | Jones +25.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Out | Questionable |
Should I start Rico Dowdle or Aaron Jones in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.8 projected points (7.4 vs 6.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Rico Dowdle or Aaron Jones in 2026 fantasy football?
Rico Dowdle. He projects 123.6 fantasy points with -13.0 value over replacement, vs 110.0 points and -26.6 for Aaron Jones (RB, PPR).