Chuba Hubbard vs Rico Dowdle
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Rico Dowdle this week: Chuba Hubbard is on bye in Week 5.
Rico Dowdle gets IND, the 16th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week, projecting 7.4 points.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Chuba Hubbard, and it isn't close: 18.9 points of value over replacement separate them (5.9 vs -13.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Rico Dowdle first (ADP 76.6 vs 77.7). If the model is right, Chuba Hubbard is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Rico Dowdle carries an injury flag of Out (Toe), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Rico DowdlePIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | Bye | IND | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 0.0 | 7.4 | Dowdle +7.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | - | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 142.5 | 123.6 | Hubbard +18.9 pts |
| Points per game | 8.4 | 7.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 5.9 | -13.0 | Hubbard +18.9 |
| Overall rank | #66 | #89 | Hubbard by 23 |
| Position rank | RB29 | RB32 | |
| Market ADP | 77.7 | 76.6 | Hubbard +1.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 9 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Chuba Hubbard or Rico Dowdle in Week 5?
Start Rico Dowdle this week: Chuba Hubbard is on bye in Week 5.
Should I draft Chuba Hubbard or Rico Dowdle in 2026 fantasy football?
Chuba Hubbard. He projects 142.5 fantasy points with 5.9 value over replacement, vs 123.6 points and -13.0 for Rico Dowdle (RB, PPR).