MarShawn Lloyd vs Aaron Jones
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans MarShawn Lloyd by 0.2 projected points (6.5 vs 6.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
MarShawn Lloyd faces ATL, the 15th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Aaron Jones faces TB, the 4th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes MarShawn Lloyd: a clear but modest edge of 11.7 points of value over replacement (-28.7 vs -40.4).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Aaron Jones first (ADP 101.6 vs 112.3). If the model is right, MarShawn Lloyd is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| MarShawn LloydGNB | Aaron JonesMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | ATL | TB | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 6.5 | 6.3 | Lloyd +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #15 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 107.9 | 96.2 | Lloyd +11.7 pts |
| Points per game | 6.3 | 5.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.7 | -40.4 | Lloyd +11.7 |
| Overall rank | #102 | #114 | Lloyd by 12 |
| Position rank | RB36 | RB39 | |
| Market ADP | 112.3 | 101.6 | Lloyd +10.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 10 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start MarShawn Lloyd or Aaron Jones in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans MarShawn Lloyd by 0.2 projected points (6.5 vs 6.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft MarShawn Lloyd or Aaron Jones in 2026 fantasy football?
MarShawn Lloyd. He projects 107.9 fantasy points with -28.7 value over replacement, vs 96.2 points and -40.4 for Aaron Jones (RB, PPR).