Kenneth Gainwell vs MarShawn Lloyd
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans MarShawn Lloyd by 0.1 projected points (6.5 vs 6.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
MarShawn Lloyd faces ATL, the 15th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Kenneth Gainwell faces MIN, the 25th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Kenneth Gainwell ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kenneth Gainwell: a clear but modest edge of 8.1 points of value over replacement (-20.6 vs -28.7).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Kenneth GainwellTAM | MarShawn LloydGNB | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | MIN | ATL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 6.4 | 6.5 | Lloyd +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 116.0 | 107.9 | Gainwell +8.1 pts |
| Points per game | 6.8 | 6.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -20.6 | -28.7 | Gainwell +8.1 |
| Overall rank | #99 | #102 | Gainwell by 3 |
| Position rank | RB35 | RB36 | |
| Market ADP | - | 112.3 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 |
Should I start Kenneth Gainwell or MarShawn Lloyd in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans MarShawn Lloyd by 0.1 projected points (6.5 vs 6.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kenneth Gainwell or MarShawn Lloyd in 2026 fantasy football?
Kenneth Gainwell. He projects 116.0 fantasy points with -20.6 value over replacement, vs 107.9 points and -28.7 for MarShawn Lloyd (RB, PPR).