Rico Dowdle vs MarShawn Lloyd
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.2 projected points (6.6 vs 6.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Rico Dowdle faces CIN, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. MarShawn Lloyd faces ATL, the 15th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Rico Dowdle: a clear but modest edge of 8.6 points of value over replacement (-20.1 vs -28.7).
The draft market agrees: Rico Dowdle goes first at ADP 76.6 vs 112.3 for MarShawn Lloyd.
Health note: Rico Dowdle carries an injury flag of Out (Toe), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Rico DowdlePIT | MarShawn LloydGNB | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CIN | ATL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 6.6 | 6.5 | Dowdle +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 116.5 | 107.9 | Dowdle +8.6 pts |
| Points per game | 6.9 | 6.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -20.1 | -28.7 | Dowdle +8.6 |
| Overall rank | #97 | #102 | Dowdle by 5 |
| Position rank | RB34 | RB36 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | 112.3 | Lloyd +35.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Rico Dowdle or MarShawn Lloyd in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.2 projected points (6.6 vs 6.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Rico Dowdle or MarShawn Lloyd in 2026 fantasy football?
Rico Dowdle. He projects 116.5 fantasy points with -20.1 value over replacement, vs 107.9 points and -28.7 for MarShawn Lloyd (RB, PPR).