Kyle Pitts vs Zach Ertz
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Zach Ertz by 0.3 projected points (6.9 vs 6.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Zach Ertz faces IND, the 12th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Kyle Pitts faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Kyle Pitts ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Kyle Pitts by 2.3 points of value over replacement (-79.5 vs -81.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Kyle PittsATL | Zach ErtzWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NO | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 6.5 | 6.9 | Ertz +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 118.0 | 115.7 | Pitts +2.3 pts |
| Points per game | 6.9 | 6.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -79.5 | -81.9 | Pitts +2.3 |
| Overall rank | #168 | #171 | Pitts by 3 |
| Position rank | TE29 | TE30 | |
| Market ADP | 80.8 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Kyle Pitts or Zach Ertz in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Zach Ertz by 0.3 projected points (6.9 vs 6.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kyle Pitts or Zach Ertz in 2026 fantasy football?
Kyle Pitts. He projects 118.0 fantasy points with -79.5 value over replacement, vs 115.7 points and -81.9 for Zach Ertz (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.