AJ Barner vs Zach Ertz
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.4 projected points (7.3 vs 6.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
AJ Barner faces LAC, the 8th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Zach Ertz faces IND, the 12th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 3.5 points of value over replacement (-78.4 vs -81.9), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| AJ BarnerSEA | Zach ErtzWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LAC | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 7.3 | 6.9 | Barner +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #8 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 119.1 | 115.7 | Barner +3.5 pts |
| Points per game | 7.0 | 6.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -78.4 | -81.9 | Barner +3.5 |
| Overall rank | #166 | #171 | Barner by 5 |
| Position rank | TE28 | TE30 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start AJ Barner or Zach Ertz in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans AJ Barner by 0.4 projected points (7.3 vs 6.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft AJ Barner or Zach Ertz in 2026 fantasy football?
AJ Barner. He projects 119.1 fantasy points with -78.4 value over replacement, vs 115.7 points and -81.9 for Zach Ertz (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.