Hunter Henry vs Kyle Pitts
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Hunter Henry by 0.5 projected points (7.1 vs 6.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Hunter Henry faces BUF, the 14th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Kyle Pitts faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Hunter Henry by 2.4 points of value over replacement (-77.2 vs -79.5), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Kyle Pitts first (ADP 80.8 vs 154.5). If the model is right, Hunter Henry is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Hunter HenryNWE | Kyle PittsATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BUF | NO | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 7.1 | 6.5 | Henry +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #14 | #25 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 120.4 | 118.0 | Henry +2.4 pts |
| Points per game | 7.1 | 6.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -77.2 | -79.5 | Henry +2.4 |
| Overall rank | #164 | #168 | Henry by 4 |
| Position rank | TE27 | TE29 | |
| Market ADP | 154.5 | 80.8 | Henry +73.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 11 |
Should I start Hunter Henry or Kyle Pitts in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Hunter Henry by 0.5 projected points (7.1 vs 6.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Hunter Henry or Kyle Pitts in 2026 fantasy football?
Hunter Henry. He projects 120.4 fantasy points with -77.2 value over replacement, vs 118.0 points and -79.5 for Kyle Pitts (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.