Rico Dowdle vs Kyle Monangai
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.4 projected points (7.4 vs 7.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Rico Dowdle faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Kyle Monangai faces GB, the 5th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Rico Dowdle: a clear but modest edge of 11.5 points of value over replacement (-13.0 vs -24.5).
The draft market agrees: Rico Dowdle goes first at ADP 76.6 vs 108.8 for Kyle Monangai.
Health note: Rico Dowdle carries an injury flag of Out (Toe), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Kyle Monangai carries an injury flag of Questionable (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Rico DowdlePIT | Kyle MonangaiCHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | IND | GB | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 7.4 | 7.0 | Dowdle +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #14 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 123.6 | 112.1 | Dowdle +11.5 pts |
| Points per game | 7.3 | 6.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -13.0 | -24.5 | Dowdle +11.5 |
| Overall rank | #87 | #100 | Dowdle by 13 |
| Position rank | RB32 | RB35 | |
| Market ADP | 76.6 | 108.8 | Monangai +32.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | Out | Questionable |
Should I start Rico Dowdle or Kyle Monangai in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Rico Dowdle by 0.4 projected points (7.4 vs 7.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Rico Dowdle or Kyle Monangai in 2026 fantasy football?
Rico Dowdle. He projects 123.6 fantasy points with -13.0 value over replacement, vs 112.1 points and -24.5 for Kyle Monangai (RB, PPR).