Kaelon Black vs Zach Charbonnet
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.4 projected points (3.8 vs 3.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Kaelon Black faces ARI, the 6th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Zach Charbonnet faces WAS, the 5th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kaelon Black: a clear but modest edge of 5.7 points of value over replacement (-77.4 vs -83.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Zach Charbonnet first (ADP 145.8 vs 166.2). If the model is right, Kaelon Black is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Zach Charbonnet carries an injury flag of PUP (Knee - ACL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Kaelon BlackSFO | Zach CharbonnetSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | ARI | WAS | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 3.8 | 3.4 | Black +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #6 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 59.2 | 53.5 | Black +5.7 pts |
| Points per game | 3.5 | 3.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -77.4 | -83.1 | Black +5.7 |
| Overall rank | #155 | #163 | Black by 8 |
| Position rank | RB48 | RB51 | |
| Market ADP | 166.2 | 145.8 | Black +20.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | None | PUP |
Should I start Kaelon Black or Zach Charbonnet in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.4 projected points (3.8 vs 3.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kaelon Black or Zach Charbonnet in 2026 fantasy football?
Kaelon Black. He projects 59.2 fantasy points with -77.4 value over replacement, vs 53.5 points and -83.1 for Zach Charbonnet (RB, PPR).