Mike Washington Jr. vs Kaelon Black
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.2 projected points (3.8 vs 3.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Kaelon Black faces ARI, the 6th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Mike Washington Jr. faces NO, the 26th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Mike Washington Jr. ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Mike Washington Jr.: a clear but modest edge of 6.8 points of value over replacement (-70.6 vs -77.4).
The draft market agrees: Mike Washington Jr. goes first at ADP 151.4 vs 166.2 for Kaelon Black.
| Mike Washington Jr.LVR | Kaelon BlackSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | NO | ARI | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 3.6 | 3.8 | Black +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #26 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 66.0 | 59.2 | Jr. +6.8 pts |
| Points per game | 3.9 | 3.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -70.6 | -77.4 | Jr. +6.8 |
| Overall rank | #150 | #155 | Jr. by 5 |
| Position rank | RB47 | RB48 | |
| Market ADP | 151.4 | 166.2 | Black +14.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 8 |
Should I start Mike Washington Jr. or Kaelon Black in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.2 projected points (3.8 vs 3.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Mike Washington Jr. or Kaelon Black in 2026 fantasy football?
Mike Washington Jr.. He projects 66.0 fantasy points with -70.6 value over replacement, vs 59.2 points and -77.4 for Kaelon Black (RB, PPR).