Kaelon Black vs Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.4 projected points (3.8 vs 3.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Kaelon Black faces ARI, the 6th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Tyrone Tracy Jr. faces TEN, the 13th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 3.9 points of value over replacement (-77.4 vs -81.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tyrone Tracy Jr. first (ADP 162.3 vs 166.2). If the model is right, Kaelon Black is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Kaelon BlackSFO | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | ARI | TEN | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 3.8 | 3.3 | Black +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #6 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 59.2 | 55.3 | Black +3.9 pts |
| Points per game | 3.5 | 3.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -77.4 | -81.3 | Black +3.9 |
| Overall rank | #155 | #159 | Black by 4 |
| Position rank | RB48 | RB50 | |
| Market ADP | 166.2 | 162.3 | Black +3.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 8 |
Should I start Kaelon Black or Tyrone Tracy Jr. in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.4 projected points (3.8 vs 3.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kaelon Black or Tyrone Tracy Jr. in 2026 fantasy football?
Kaelon Black. He projects 59.2 fantasy points with -77.4 value over replacement, vs 55.3 points and -81.3 for Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.