Michael Carter vs Kaelon Black
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.5 projected points (3.0 vs 2.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Kaelon Black faces SEA, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Michael Carter faces HOU, the 30th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Carter ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Carter by 1.5 points of value over replacement (-88.1 vs -89.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Michael CarterTEN | Kaelon BlackSFO | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | HOU | SEA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 2.6 | 3.0 | Black +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #30 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 48.5 | 47.0 | Carter +1.5 pts |
| Points per game | 2.9 | 2.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.1 | -89.6 | Carter +1.5 |
| Overall rank | #165 | #167 | Carter by 2 |
| Position rank | RB54 | RB55 | |
| Market ADP | - | 166.2 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 8 |
Should I start Michael Carter or Kaelon Black in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Kaelon Black by 0.5 projected points (3.0 vs 2.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Carter or Kaelon Black in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Carter. He projects 48.5 fantasy points with -88.1 value over replacement, vs 47.0 points and -89.6 for Kaelon Black (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.