Michael Carter vs Jonah Coleman
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jonah Coleman by 0.1 projected points (2.6 vs 2.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jonah Coleman faces LA, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Michael Carter faces NYG, the 31st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Carter ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Michael Carter by 1.5 points of value over replacement (-88.1 vs -89.6), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Jonah Coleman carries an injury flag of IR (Ankle), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Michael CarterTEN | Jonah ColemanDEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | NYG | LA | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 2.5 | 2.6 | Coleman +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #31 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 48.5 | 47.0 | Carter +1.5 pts |
| Points per game | 2.9 | 2.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -88.1 | -89.6 | Carter +1.5 |
| Overall rank | #170 | #171 | Carter by 1 |
| Position rank | RB55 | RB56 | |
| Market ADP | - | 155.6 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | IR |
Should I start Michael Carter or Jonah Coleman in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jonah Coleman by 0.1 projected points (2.6 vs 2.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Carter or Jonah Coleman in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Carter. He projects 48.5 fantasy points with -88.1 value over replacement, vs 47.0 points and -89.6 for Jonah Coleman (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.