Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Jaylen Warren this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (8.3 vs 7.0).
Both face CIN, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jaylen Warren, and it isn't close: 22.1 points of value over replacement separate them (9.1 vs -13.0).
The draft market agrees: Jaylen Warren goes first at ADP 63.1 vs 76.6 for Rico Dowdle.
Health note: Jaylen Warren carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Rico Dowdle carries an injury flag of Out (Toe), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jaylen WarrenPIT | Rico DowdlePIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | CIN | CIN | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 8.3 | 7.0 | Warren +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #21 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 145.7 | 123.6 | Warren +22.1 pts |
| Points per game | 8.6 | 7.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 9.1 | -13.0 | Warren +22.1 |
| Overall rank | #64 | #89 | Warren by 25 |
| Position rank | RB28 | RB31 | |
| Market ADP | 63.1 | 76.6 | Dowdle +13.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 6 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 9 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | Out |
Should I start Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle in Week 3?
Start Jaylen Warren this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (8.3 vs 7.0).
Should I draft Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle in 2026 fantasy football?
Jaylen Warren. He projects 145.7 fantasy points with 9.1 value over replacement, vs 123.6 points and -13.0 for Rico Dowdle (RB, PPR).