Isaiah Likely vs Juwan Johnson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.3 projected points (7.9 vs 7.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Isaiah Likely faces ARI, the 21st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Juwan Johnson faces ATL, the 12th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Isaiah Likely: a clear but modest edge of 12.6 points of value over replacement (-43.1 vs -55.7).
The draft market agrees: Isaiah Likely goes first at ADP 136.6 vs 154.5 for Juwan Johnson.
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | Juwan JohnsonNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ARI | ATL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 7.9 | 7.6 | Likely +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.2 | 124.6 | Likely +12.6 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -43.1 | -55.7 | Likely +12.6 |
| Overall rank | #119 | #133 | Likely by 14 |
| Position rank | TE14 | TE17 | |
| Market ADP | 136.6 | 154.5 | Johnson +17.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 8 |
Should I start Isaiah Likely or Juwan Johnson in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.3 projected points (7.9 vs 7.6), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Isaiah Likely or Juwan Johnson in 2026 fantasy football?
Isaiah Likely. He projects 137.2 fantasy points with -43.1 value over replacement, vs 124.6 points and -55.7 for Juwan Johnson (TE, PPR).