George Pickens vs Zay Flowers
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Zay Flowers this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (15.3 vs 14.0).
Zay Flowers faces TEN, the 1st-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. George Pickens faces HOU, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks George Pickens ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes George Pickens, and it isn't close: 17.3 points of value over replacement separate them (65.0 vs 47.7).
The draft market agrees: George Pickens goes first at ADP 20.6 vs 24.8 for Zay Flowers.
| George PickensDAL | Zay FlowersBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | HOU | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.0 | 15.3 | Flowers +1.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #23 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 245.3 | 228.0 | Pickens +17.3 pts |
| Points per game | 14.4 | 13.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 65.0 | 47.7 | Pickens +17.3 |
| Overall rank | #29 | #36 | Pickens by 7 |
| Position rank | WR10 | WR12 | |
| Market ADP | 20.6 | 24.8 | Flowers +4.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 13 |
Should I start George Pickens or Zay Flowers in Week 4?
Start Zay Flowers this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.3 projected points (15.3 vs 14.0).
Should I draft George Pickens or Zay Flowers in 2026 fantasy football?
George Pickens. He projects 245.3 fantasy points with 65.0 value over replacement, vs 228.0 points and 47.7 for Zay Flowers (WR, PPR).