George Pickens vs Chris Olave
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans George Pickens by 0.5 projected points (14.3 vs 13.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
George Pickens faces BAL, the 17th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Chris Olave faces LV, the 13th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes George Pickens: a clear but modest edge of 13.1 points of value over replacement (64.0 vs 51.0).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Chris Olave first (ADP 19.9 vs 20.6). If the model is right, George Pickens is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| George PickensDAL | Chris OlaveNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BAL | LV | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 14.3 | 13.7 | Pickens +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 32) | #17 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 242.5 | 229.4 | Pickens +13.1 pts |
| Points per game | 14.3 | 13.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 64.0 | 51.0 | Pickens +13.1 |
| Overall rank | #26 | #34 | Pickens by 8 |
| Position rank | WR8 | WR11 | |
| Market ADP | 20.6 | 19.9 | Pickens +0.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 2 | Rd 2 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 8 |
Should I start George Pickens or Chris Olave in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans George Pickens by 0.5 projected points (14.3 vs 13.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft George Pickens or Chris Olave in 2026 fantasy football?
George Pickens. He projects 242.5 fantasy points with 64.0 value over replacement, vs 229.4 points and 51.0 for Chris Olave (WR, PPR).