Makai Lemon vs Deebo Samuel
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Makai Lemon by 0.3 projected points (8.9 vs 8.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Makai Lemon faces JAX, the 13th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week. Deebo Samuel faces NYG, the 15th-friendliest matchup a WR can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Makai Lemon by 3.8 points of value over replacement (-30.4 vs -34.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Deebo Samuel first (ADP 115.4 vs 131.2). If the model is right, Makai Lemon is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Deebo Samuel carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Makai LemonPHI | Deebo SamuelWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | JAX | NYG | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 8.9 | 8.7 | Lemon +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (WR vs defense, of 30) | #13 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 148.0 | 144.2 | Lemon +3.8 pts |
| Points per game | 8.7 | 8.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -30.4 | -34.2 | Lemon +3.8 |
| Overall rank | #105 | #109 | Lemon by 4 |
| Position rank | WR43 | WR46 | |
| Market ADP | 131.2 | 115.4 | Lemon +15.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 10 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Makai Lemon or Deebo Samuel in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Makai Lemon by 0.3 projected points (8.9 vs 8.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Makai Lemon or Deebo Samuel in 2026 fantasy football?
Makai Lemon. He projects 148.0 fantasy points with -30.4 value over replacement, vs 144.2 points and -34.2 for Deebo Samuel (WR, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.