David Montgomery vs Jaylen Warren
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans David Montgomery by 0.2 projected points (9.4 vs 9.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
David Montgomery faces TEN, the 21st-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Jaylen Warren faces IND, the 16th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes David Montgomery: a clear but modest edge of 8.3 points of value over replacement (25.8 vs 17.5).
The draft market agrees: David Montgomery goes first at ADP 52.0 vs 63.1 for Jaylen Warren.
| David MontgomeryHOU | Jaylen WarrenPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TEN | IND | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 9.4 | 9.2 | Montgomery +0.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 30) | #21 | #16 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 162.4 | 154.1 | Montgomery +8.3 pts |
| Points per game | 9.6 | 9.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 25.8 | 17.5 | Montgomery +8.3 |
| Overall rank | #47 | #56 | Montgomery by 9 |
| Position rank | RB22 | RB25 | |
| Market ADP | 52.0 | 63.1 | Warren +11.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 9 |
Should I start David Montgomery or Jaylen Warren in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans David Montgomery by 0.2 projected points (9.4 vs 9.2), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft David Montgomery or Jaylen Warren in 2026 fantasy football?
David Montgomery. He projects 162.4 fantasy points with 25.8 value over replacement, vs 154.1 points and 17.5 for Jaylen Warren (RB, PPR).