Eli Heidenreich vs David Montgomery
Who should you start in Week 10? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 10
This week is a coin flip. The model leans David Montgomery by 0.4 projected points (7.6 vs 7.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
David Montgomery faces CLE, the 5th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week. Eli Heidenreich faces CIN, the 14th-friendliest matchup a RB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Eli Heidenreich ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 10, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Eli Heidenreich by 3.9 points of value over replacement (-23.8 vs -27.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: David Montgomery carries an injury flag of Questionable (Groin), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Eli HeidenreichPIT | David MontgomeryHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 opponent | CIN | CLE | |
| Projected Week 10 points | 7.3 | 7.6 | Montgomery +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (RB vs defense, of 28) | #14 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 122.9 | 119.0 | Heidenreich +3.9 pts |
| Points per game | 7.2 | 7.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -23.8 | -27.7 | Heidenreich +3.9 |
| Overall rank | #99 | #105 | Heidenreich by 6 |
| Position rank | RB36 | RB39 | |
| Market ADP | - | 52.0 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Eli Heidenreich or David Montgomery in Week 10?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans David Montgomery by 0.4 projected points (7.6 vs 7.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Eli Heidenreich or David Montgomery in 2026 fantasy football?
Eli Heidenreich. He projects 122.9 fantasy points with -23.8 value over replacement, vs 119.0 points and -27.7 for David Montgomery (RB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.