Darren Waller vs T.J. Hockenson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans T.J. Hockenson by 0.6 projected points (6.4 vs 5.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
T.J. Hockenson faces MIA, the 11th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces MIN, the 31st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Darren Waller ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Darren Waller: a clear but modest edge of 8.4 points of value over replacement (-63.3 vs -71.7).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Darren WallerMIA | T.J. HockensonMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | MIN | MIA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 5.8 | 6.4 | Hockenson +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #31 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 115.1 | 106.7 | Waller +8.4 pts |
| Points per game | 6.8 | 6.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -63.3 | -71.7 | Waller +8.4 |
| Overall rank | #142 | #152 | Waller by 10 |
| Position rank | TE19 | TE21 | |
| Market ADP | - | 162.0 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 6 |
Should I start Darren Waller or T.J. Hockenson in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans T.J. Hockenson by 0.6 projected points (6.4 vs 5.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Darren Waller or T.J. Hockenson in 2026 fantasy football?
Darren Waller. He projects 115.1 fantasy points with -63.3 value over replacement, vs 106.7 points and -71.7 for T.J. Hockenson (TE, PPR).