Juwan Johnson vs Darren Waller
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Juwan Johnson by 1.0 projected points (6.8 vs 5.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Juwan Johnson faces ATL, the 27th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces MIN, the 31st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Juwan Johnson: a clear but modest edge of 9.5 points of value over replacement (-53.8 vs -63.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Juwan JohnsonNOR | Darren WallerMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ATL | MIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 6.8 | 5.8 | Johnson +1.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #27 | #31 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 124.6 | 115.1 | Johnson +9.5 pts |
| Points per game | 7.3 | 6.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -53.8 | -63.3 | Johnson +9.5 |
| Overall rank | #132 | #142 | Johnson by 10 |
| Position rank | TE17 | TE19 | |
| Market ADP | 154.5 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | - | |
| Bye week | 8 | 6 |
Should I start Juwan Johnson or Darren Waller in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Juwan Johnson by 1.0 projected points (6.8 vs 5.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Juwan Johnson or Darren Waller in 2026 fantasy football?
Juwan Johnson. He projects 124.6 fantasy points with -53.8 value over replacement, vs 115.1 points and -63.3 for Darren Waller (TE, PPR).