Darren Waller vs Michael Mayer
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Darren Waller by 0.7 projected points (9.0 vs 8.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Darren Waller faces CIN, the 11th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Michael Mayer faces NE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Darren Waller: a clear but modest edge of 5.1 points of value over replacement (-42.0 vs -47.1).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Darren WallerMIA | Michael MayerLVR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | CIN | NE | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 9.0 | 8.4 | Waller +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #11 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 150.0 | 144.9 | Waller +5.1 pts |
| Points per game | 8.8 | 8.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -42.0 | -47.1 | Waller +5.1 |
| Overall rank | #119 | #126 | Waller by 7 |
| Position rank | TE18 | TE20 | |
| Market ADP | - | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | - | |
| Bye week | 6 | 13 |
Should I start Darren Waller or Michael Mayer in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Darren Waller by 0.7 projected points (9.0 vs 8.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Darren Waller or Michael Mayer in 2026 fantasy football?
Darren Waller. He projects 150.0 fantasy points with -42.0 value over replacement, vs 144.9 points and -47.1 for Michael Mayer (TE, PPR).